How did I do?

Last week I made some predictions about the election -just for the fun of it. My prognostication came out remarkbly near the mark. Here was my electoral college prediction:




The actual electoral vote seems to have finally been settled* to the map below:

I underestimated Obama's outcome in two places. Though I noted that North Carolina would be very close, I thought McCain was likely to outperform the polls enough to take the Tar Heel state. He nearly did. (Most of my calls for Obama were to North Carolina, the rest split between Ohio and Florida. So I'll take the credit. -hehe) The other spot I missed is Omaha. The state of Nebraska is one of two that alots an electoral vote to the candidate who wins each congressional district and two additional votes to the overall winner in that state. Obama squeaked by in the Omaha district that I knew was close, but neglected to include in my "best case" scenario.
Even though Indiana was polling slightly red the last week of the campaign I just felt it might break our way and, correctly it turns out, picked it as my upset. The other toss-ups/battlegrounds I put in the column most pollsters put them when forced to make a choice: McCain - MT, ND, GA, WV; Obama - PA (never really in doubt!), NM, CO, NH, NV, VA, OH, FL

I made several other guesses:
- Obama will be the first Democrat since our bicentennial year to poll over 50% of the popular vote - I predict 52%. Obama beat my prediction with 53%!
- Sleazy Saxby Chambliss will find himself in a run-off with Jim Martin. Right on!
- Elizabeth Dole will lose her seat in the Senate as will Ted Stevens, Gordon Smith, John Sununu, and Norm Coleman. Smith's two Democratic first cousins will be elected in Colorado and New Mexico. I was right about Dole, Smith, Sununu, and the two Udalls! Convicted-felon Stevens is slightly ahead but many absentee and provisional ballots remain to be counted. Coleman will probably squeak out a tiny plurality but a recount is underway.
- Counting the two independents the Democratic caucus in the Senate will number at least 59.
Still possible in the unlikely event that two of the three undecided races turn blue. We are currently at 57.
- We will elect 260 House Democrats. It looks like we will come up several seats shy of 260. Right now the count is 255.

-------

* There is still a very slight possibility that Missouri could turn blue by a few votes.

Final Predictions

Well, this is it. The final votes will be cast tomorrow. Some time ago I made a map of a narrow win for Barack Obama. I now believe the following scenario is the worst (please!) he can do! John McCain's only hope is to hold the red states on this map and somehow grab Pennsylvania.

On the other hand this next map is the very best scenario that I believe it is reasonable to hope for. I actually think it is reasonable to hope for Georgia's 15 electoral votes to go to Barack Obama and Joe Biden.



But for the fun of it, I'll give my actual best idea of where the map will stand when all the votes are counted. No one really knows, of course, but if Fred Barnes and Chris Mattthews and Bill Maher can put forward predictions, why not me!
The closest margins will be (IMHO) in Indiana, Missouri, North Carolina, Ohio, Florida, and -- just maybe -- Georgia.

The final Gallup likely voter poll predicts a big Obama win:



A few other predictions from the Limb:
- Obama will be the first Democrat since our bicentennial year to poll over 50% of the popular vote - I predict 52%.
- Sleazy Saxby Chambliss will find himself in a run-off with Jim Martin.
- Elizabeth Dole will lose her seat in the Senate as will Ted Stevens, Gordon Smith, John Sununu, and Norm Coleman. Smith's two Democratic first cousins will be elected in Colorado and New Mexico.
- Counting the two independents the Democratic caucus in the Senate will number at least 59.
- We will elect 260 House Democrats

Whether my idle predictions work out or not, at least we know that the Bush era is over.

Politics has provided some of the great inspiring moments of my life and some of the greatest disappointments. I will never approach election night without an elevated heart rate and blood pressure and, despite high hopes and a basic optimism, an underlying sense of dread that, however sure the polls look, bad guys might yet pull some shenanigans and scare good people into voting against the best interests of liberty.

Barring the biggest upset in Presidential electoral history, Barack Obama will be our President next January. That is a wonderfully comforting thought to this American. But blog predictions are a dime a dozen. We, the People still have to seal the deal at the polls.


And after all, unlike political junkies like me who see Red and Blue State scenarios, Barack Obama calls on us all to remember we are the UNITED States of America.

Powellful Endorsement

In what is surely a good omen, climbing through bricks piled by some workmen here at the house a few weeks ago, a dahlia plant blooms gloriously. I had completely overlooked it till we started out for a walk awhile ago. Thanks, Mike! I'd put its beauty up against any of yours. A bit more lonely than yours perhaps, but gorgeous! I suspect three-quarters of the population would admire this flower.

A person admired in America by all but the opposite endpoints of the political spectrum spoke eloquently today of why he has decided to endorse Barack Obama for President of the United States. When you look at the centrist, level-headed, patriotic group that Barack Obama has put together to advise him on domestic and international issues; when you look at the way he has reached for advice without regard to age, sex, race, or political party; when you look at the dignity, moderation, inclusiveness, intelligence, openness, thoughtfulness, and eloquence of his campaign; how could you pay attention to the mean-spirited, culture-warfaring, small-minded, campaign of his opponent?
Listen to Gen. Colin Powell's earnest, unreserved endorsement of Barack Obama.


Endorsements change few minds. But I think this one might help to solidify the impression among the majority that Barack Obama is who he appears to be and not the cartoon drawn by his opponents. Obama is, indeed, the leader we need at this time. He is a transformational figure. And potentially a great President.






The image of the Muslim mother at Arlington National Cemetery was very moving to me. Here is the young man's stone.

When I think of the Republican misuse of religion in politics, I think of the 15 year old former student whom I ran into at a festival yesterday. A great kid. All American. And Muslim. I could see him joining the service in just a few years. If he were to, he would be an exemplary soldier. And he has as much right to aspire to the Presidency as any other American teenager.

(Edited for clarity, 10/20/08)

John McCain's Worst Debate

Four debates. John McCain has debated Barack Obama three times. His strange running mate has (imagine McCain's air quotes and sarcastic smile here) "debated" Joe Biden once.
In each of the four cases the polls have inicated a clear win for the Democratic candidate. Last night was the biggest margin of victory for Obama yet.

McCain may have further solidified his base with his uncorked attack on Obama as a collaborater in "one of the greatest voter frauds in history." As the polls have verified his vitriol only further eroded his standing among the voters that will decide this race: the independents. What an incredible crock of unpleasantness from the party that perpetrated Florida 2000. First of all the fraud in the ACORN case is a fraud perpetrated against ACORN not by ACORN. Secondly, ACORN itself has alerted election officials to the possiblity of irregularities in some of the applications that they are required by law to turn over to the states even when they are suspicious of them. Finally, though these fake applications are an infuriating aggravation for state elections officials they do not represent a significant danger to the validity of the election. Election theft is much more likely, IMHO, from computer manipulation of paperless ballots.

Thank heavens for the immediate polling that is done nowadays. At least in the case of CNN the "spin room" has been abandoned in favor of a group of media commentators who, though mostly anxious to have a close race to boost ratings, temper their words until the polls come in.

Battleground?

John McCain is spending millions in the "Battleground state" of Pennsylvania. He and his lipstick bedecked pit bull ("Terrrrrrrrrrrorrrrrrissssssssssttttttt!
Terrrrrrrrrrrorrrrrrissssssssssttttttt! ") were there yesterday desperately campaigning to turn things around. Here is the current Pennsylvania polling from Real Clear Politics:



Meanwhile in good old solid red Georgia the current polling as recorded by RCP looks like this:


Lots of stuff can happen in four weeks, but I sure prefer our current position to that of the other guys.

Palling Around with Palin

Whatever honor John McCain showed in the Hanoi Hilton evidently got used up there. His campaign announced over the weekend that they plan to "turn the page" on the campaign by running attacks against Barack Obama for his acquaintances. (See our previous post) Never mind Sarah's "keep up the good work!" to Alaskan separatists. Never mind McCain's visits to the Bahamas as the guest of Charles Keating. Never mind McCain's praise of Gordon Liddy. For that matter never mind Phil Gramm.

McCain, understandibly wants to "turn the page" on the economic implosion. Especially since his misdeeds with Keating in the eighties led to problems very similar to those we confront now.

Here's McCain's vicious running mate probably winking as she heaves the slime. (Click the pic.)

Barack Obama's campaign has stayed almost exclusively positive, only attacking on matters of voting record or in response to McCain's mud-slinging. McCain's campaign is now 100% slime. Here comes another desperation Hail Mary pass from erratic John McCain. This one looks very wobbly and weak to me and just might get picked off. It looks like McCain has set the precedent that allows his opponents to bring up his part in the Keating Five affair, a scandal that actually took place while McCain was senator, with McCain's direct involvement, for which he was reprimanded by the Senate, and that relates very directly to the current economic scandal.

And the market just dipped below 10,000.

Palling Around

When I was a young teacher I commuted fifty miles or so to take some graduate classes. I shared the ride with three others. One was a brilliant but off-beat fellow who professed to admire Mao and to believe Communism the best form of government. I remember attending a political event for a fellow teacher who was running for state senator. That guy was there. I also attended a wonderful dinner he and his wife hosted at their house. I played chess with him a time or two.

I have served on the boards of several charity or comminity organizations. I know of several once active members of the John Birch Society - remember I am a former constituent of Congressman Larry McDonald - who have served with me on those boards. Some have attended events at my home.

I regularly hug and express admiration and love for some people who still support George Bush. One of the people I admire most in this world is the national spokesperson for a very conservative political group. Several people I regularly associate with write far right blogs.

Perhaps knowing these people of such diverse views has helped me a little in clarifying my own. I certainly don't share their beliefs however and their views have no real relationship to my abilities, my beliefs, or my political aims.

Barack Obama taught with, served on a charity board with, attended political meetings with, and was acquainted with, a man who was an extrenist many year ago. John McCain has expressed admiration for, and appeared on the radio show of, a man who brags about planning a murder (He did not carry it out.) and who served prison time for participating in the Watergate break-in. Sarah Palin has had a close relationship with Alaskan separatists.

My opposition to Sarah Palin and John McCain is not based on their acquaintances. My support of Barack Obama is not based his acquaintances.

A majority of voters, accouding to Gallup, Rasmussen, ABC, CBS, and other pollsters, currently support Obama. The majority agrees with the proposals of Barack Obama. The only way for McCain to win at this point is to somehow convince a portion of his opponent's current supporters that, however much they agree with him, Obama is not the person they think he is. In other words McCain must drag Obama's reputation down.

This is from the Rasmussen polling site:

Forty-five percent (45%) of voters say they are certain they will vote for Obama and will not change their mind. Thirty-eight percent (38%) say the same about McCain. Thirteen percent (13%) currently have a preference for one of the candidates but might change their mind. Four percent (4%) are either undecided or plan to vote for a third-party candidate.
One way of understanding the difficult challenge now facing McCain is to consider the relatively small group of persuadable voters who could still change their mind. The Republican hopeful would have to win nearly 80% of those votes to pull ahead in the race. That’s especially challenging because most of those voters are currently leaning towards Obama. In other words, while the race is not over, McCain needs a significant--game-changing—event to win the White House. Simply doing what he’s been doing a little better will not be enough.

McCain knows this. He is now running almost exclusively negative ads. As the "Road to 270" gets harder for McCain, he will react by making ever wilder accusations, hoping to stumble upon something "game-changing".

We are in for a rough few weeks.

The Audacity of Confidence

I tend to trust my perceptions of human nature.

I believe that I can read the character of folks better than the average person. That's audacious, even arrogant, I suppose, but reading people has been a hobby and a self-perceived skill of mine for many years. I have irritated the stew out of some of my readers in the past by discussing "comfort in one's own skin" as a factor I look for in candidates.

In watching the debate on Friday, I saw one comfortable candidate and one visibly uncomfortable candidate.

The reason Barack Obama was the victor in that debate (despite the notion of a draw that several of the "pundits" saw) was that he looked, and spoke, and listened, with calm and confidence. He listened with respect to his opponent. He confidently acknowledged areas of agreement with his opponent and went on to explain where and how and why he disagreed. That is a basic skill of a diplomat. McCain, on the other hand refused to look at Obama. He seemed not to listen to him. His body language was disdainful and angry.

To put it succinctly: Of the two, Barack Obama looked and sounded more like a President.

Yesterday the Gallup poll showed an uptick for Obama. I believe Obama's poll numbers will rise a bit more today. It will likely tighten again before Novemeber fourth. There are several weeks to go. There will be more desperate and vicious ads from the McCain campaign and even worse ones from the NRA and other extremists on the right. McCain can still pull it out, having sold his soul already. But today, things look better for the good guys.

On Friday a very big audience that included folks who have given little attention to the race till now saw someone who does not fit the silly image that the McCain campaign has tried to paint of Obama. Even though his former pastor might get carried away with inflamatory rhetoric, even though he happens to have had an acquaintance with a man who was -- 40 years ago -- a certified hothead, Barack Obama is no hotheaded extremist.

If someone seemed hotheaded on Friday, it was not Obama.

John McCain's Gimmick of the Day

Plummeting in the polls, John McCain is desperately trying to find a way to avoid his own history. After a career of fighting economic regulation, he embraces regulation. Days after declaring the "fundamentals" of the economy fine and dandy he admits thing aren't quite so peachy. After declaring Barack Obama unprepared for the Presidency, he names the least prepared VP candidate anyone remembers. With the economic emergency reminding folks of his self-described lack of knowledge in economic matters, he decides that the candidates should suspend the campaign so he can rush to the nearest phone booth, don the appropriate tights, then fly off to Washington to to save the world.

It is indeed the Zig Zag Express.

McCain would "suspend" the (official) campaign. Is there a candidate who would benefit from the NRA's (and other "third party") lying ads running without competition for a few days?

He would postpone the first debate. Is there a candidate who prefers the "foreign policy" debate not be overshadowed by an economic emergency?

He might be perceived as actually doing something about an economic issue. Is there a candidate who is currently perceived as having little interest, ability, or experience in economic affairs?

He would postpne the first VP debate. Is there a candidate with no national debate experience who might need a little more practice time?

If there is anyone in the nation who believes that John McCain's motives are as he claims, I have some oceanfront property in Arizona I'd like to sell you.

What a transparent, ridiculous gimmick.

George Will on John McCain

When George Will -- George Will!! -- has this to say about the Republican candidate for President, the GOP has a problem:

"I suppose the McCain campaign's hope is that when there's a big crisis, people will go for age and experience. The question is, who in this crisis looked more presidential, calm and un-flustered? It wasn't John McCain who, as usual, substituting vehemence for coherence, said 'let's fire somebody.' And picked one of the most experienced and conservative people in the administration, Chris Cox, and for no apparent reason... It was un-presidential behavior by a presidential candidate."

-George Will, Conservative Commentator

Tuesday Note: George Will writes more on this topic in his column today.

Of course he doesn't seem Presidential when he affirms: "I'm John McCain and I approve this message" just before or after another big lie.

Here's a little fun in regard to McCain's sleazy ads:

The Straight Talk, er, Zig Zag, Express

From Newsweek...

John McCain's whole campaign is based on the idea that Barack Obama is risky, untested and can't be trusted to protect the nation in a crisis. But this week it was McCain who seemed unpresidential, as his Zigzag Express swerved back and forth across the median strip. His approach to the greatest financial crisis since 1933 was erratic and off-key. Would his presidency be any different?

-Jonathan Alter, Newsweek

From a Neo-con ally of McCain...

This past week, though, McCain seemed to lose his head in reaction to the admittedly head-spinning financial news. First he said the economic fundamentals were strong; then he emphasized that it was a really bad crisis. First he sounded calm and deliberate; then he called, without really explaining why, for the firing of SEC chairman Christopher Cox. First he said we shouldn't bail out AIG; then he said it was reasonable to bail out AIG. First he emphasized that this was a time for bipartisanship; then he unleashed attacks on Barack Obama and the Democrats.

- William Kristol, The Weekly Standard

From one side of McCain's own mouth...

"Opening up the health insurance market to more vigorous nationwide competition, as we have done over the last decade in banking, would provide more choices of innovative products less burdened by the worst excesses of state-based regulation."

-John McCain

Credit Card Patriots

Part of the reason I have been furious with the Republicans for the last eight years is that they have wanted to put the financial burden of the War in Iraq on our children while decreasing taxes on the wealthy folks. It has been the history of our country that when our sons have been at war, we the people, in a great outpouring of patriotism, have sacrificed, saved, conducted scrap metal drives, put up with rationing, and paid more taxes. George Bush and John McCain have wanted to conduct a Credit Card war. Just put it on the tab. They have tried to hide the sacrifice of our sons and daughters -- even discouraging pictures of their flag-draped coffins -- and postpone the financial burden. It is obscene that the tax bite on the rich has been reduced while our soldiers die and we pay billions and billions for a mistaken war.

And when Joe Biden suggests that those who have been most blessed by our free enterprise system would be showing patriotism to help pay the costs of protecting our country, the McCain camp ridicules the idea.

It is my opinion that, until the war in Iraq ends, all Americans should pay additional taxes. That ain't gonna happen. 95% of Americans will see NO increase in taxes at all under an Obama administration. Only those who make $250,000 or more annually would see their taxes raised in an Obama administration. And those folks would still be paying smaller tax rates than they did during the boom years of the Clinton administration.

Look at this chart again.


The McCain-Bush plan of encouraging the rich to get richer in wartime means that deficits explode. Trickle-down does not work. Sensible, Democratic, moderate, regulated, free enterprise does.

The moderate, Democratic, progressive tax system -- that has been the norm in America since my birth in 1947 -- has never hampered my wonderful blessings. I live comfortably. My children have had a good education. Between the four of us we have a nice house and FOUR vehicles. Our mail is delivered to our door. Police officers patrol our street (and even the levee on bike). I worship in freedom every Sunday. I speak my mind. I enjoy an outdoors that includes cleaner air and water because of tax funded environmental programs. One of my favorite memories is a national month-long tour Sheila and I made on the partially tax-funded Amtrak system. I listen to Garrison Kiellor, non-partisan news, beautiful music, and fascinating, thought-provoking journalism on public radio. I drink safe water from a spigot in my kitchen. I drive on an outstanding highway system (though the last eight years have seen the infrastructure age.) I have hiked in national forests that the Republicans tried to sell off in the 1980s.

I pay more taxes than average. I ought to.

I do not resent the taxes I pay every April 15.

The Credit Card Patriots are just as happy to spend, but they don't want to pay.

Some Great Graphs

I was looking for a graphic on Google images. I didn't find the one I was looking for but I did run across these. I suspect they are accurate, but cannot verify them. Click on an image or link to see the original website and check them out for yourselves.

Want economic growth? Vote Democratic.

Here's an interesting graph from The Liscio Report I stumbled upon. If this graph is accurate, it looks like, at least in terms of GDP, the country has done better under Democratic presidents. Not only do the rich grow richer and the poor grow poorer under Republicans, but we also produce less under the Republicans overall.





Oh what Big Spending Democrats we are!!
As is plain from the chart below, the Republicans are the real big spenders.



Drill, Drill, Drill?




Earmarks? So what!!
I share the enthusiasm to end ridiculous earmarks like the Bridge to Nowhere that McCain's VP pick tried so hard to build. But come on Mr. McCain, if you want to cut the federal budget, you gotta come up with more than that.

John McCain's Poor Choices

First there was the VP.

• One perfunctory meeting with McCain before the Offer.
• Less than two years as Governor of a state significantly smaller than Gwinnett County GA.
• Mayor of a town significantly smaller than Cedartown GA and only slightly larger than Summerville GA. But government leaders in Cedartown and Summerville may have greater duties than the Wasilla AK mayor had. According to a report by the Washington Post:

The universe of the mayor of Wasilla is sharply circumscribed even by the standards of small towns...

The loud aerial wolf-shooter has been a boon to McCain's campaign by revving up the crazies on the right. They love the fact that she would prefer to outlaw abortion even in the case of rape or incest. They are not bothered by the fact that Palin, though a very nice-looking woman, has been a figurative pig at the earmark trough: hiring a lobbyist to bring home the Federal bacon, pressing for the Bridge to Nowhere (until it was killed by others), fundraising for the King of Earmarks (Sen. Stevens).

Here is what Frank Rich thinks of the Republican ticket:

With all due deference to lipstick, let’s advance the story. A week ago the question was: Is Sarah Palin qualified to be a heartbeat away from the presidency? The question today: What kind of president would Sarah Palin be?
It’s an urgent matter, because if we’ve learned anything from the G.O.P. convention and its aftermath, it’s that the 2008 edition of John McCain is too weak to serve as America’s chief executive.

I was distressed by the body language I witnessed in her Gibson interview. She had obviously been given talking points for every posible question. She delivered them. But the eyes and body language gave away her discomfort. This Washington Post editorial has it about right:

Ms. Palin's interview with Mr. Gibson was not disqualifying, but it was also far from comforting... Asked about the prospect of an Israeli attack on Iranian nuclear facilities, Ms. Palin said three times that the United States should not "second-guess" Israeli decisions on self-defense. But of course the United States should, and does, engage in that sort of second-guessing, from the location of settlements to sales of military equipment. If Israel wanted to attack Iran, would a President Palin permit Israeli forces to fly through U.S.-controlled airspace?

Even on the domestic issues about which she could have been expected to have more familiarity, Ms. Palin's responses were disappointingly shallow. Defending her state's -- and her own -- record on earmarks, Ms. Palin suggested that the problem was not shoveling money toward pet projects but the failure to make this shoveling transparent -- seemingly not recognizing that this is far different from the more fundamental complaint of her running mate, John McCain. The "Bridge to Nowhere," after all, was no secret...

Her efforts to explain some previous statements were lacking in candor..... How does Ms. Palin reconcile her understanding of abortion as a "personal issue" with her view that the choice should be taken away from the pregnant woman?

I believe the appointment of someone so clearly unprepared to be President and someone who continues (as late as yesterday) to blatantly lie in her speeches about the Bridge to Nowhere, was a serious mistake by McCain. It was not Presidential. It reinforces his lifelong reputation for impulsivity -- in the Senate, in his extra-marital affairs, in his career as a Navy pilot, and as an irresponsible cadet (fourth from the bottom in GPA) at the Naval Academy. It also reinforces his record as a tool of the lobbyists. From his part in the "Keating Five" scandal to the lobbyists running his campaign this year (including a paid lobbyist for the nation of Georgia), he has shown his true colors. He is no reformer. He gave it a bit of a try in 2000. Now he is just another Bush-Rove disciple.


Now the lying ads.

McCain is avoiding the issues like the plague. His issues are Bush's. McCain knows he loses on the issues. Instead he is running a virtully uninterrupted negative campaign of faux outrage and outright lies. The "sex-ed" ad is one of the sleaziest, most dastardly ads in the history of dirty TV ads.

A pox upon John McCain and all who follow his low-down dirty, special interest-funded, lobbyist-run, swiftboating, Bush-Rove ways.

Later note: Hold on to you seats folks! Even Karl Rove -- Karl Rove!!! -- admits that McCain's campaign ads are dishonest!!!

McCain has gone in some of his ads similarly gone one step too far in sort of attributing to Obama things that are, you know…beyond, beyond, beyond the, the 100% truth test.

-Karl Rove

To paint the McCain campaign as "change" is to put lipstick on a pig.

It is time for real change. Click the link for specifics.
Real change. Click the link for more good reasons.
Real change. Click the link for excellent arguments for change from someone who KNOWS.
Real change. Click the link to understand change from the viewpoint of a real feminist.

McCain's political team was smart to announce their pick the morning after Obama's wonderful speech. But the RNC bounce is flattening out. The lies are starting to backfire on the Bush-McCain team. It's a very close race right now. We can win back our wonderful nation.

Let's get to work.

Lipstick and Other Bush-McCain Smears

To see a brief but brilliant reprise of the Republican National Convention click the pic above.

The true use of lipstick? Click the pic.

She may not know the Bush Doctrine, but she has certainly given us the Palin Doctrine.

Mystery Solved?

Sheila and I watched John McCain's acceptance speech and our mouths dropped open when he appeared, again, against a "green screen" (and later a "blue screen"). Photographers and videograhers and movie makers call this a "chroma key". Green screens and other chroma keys allow the folks at "Whose Line Is It Anyway?" to put ol' Colin in a swamp full of alligators. They allow every weather reporter in America to point at a blank wall while he watches the weather map on a monitor and we folks at home to wonder how he knows he pointing at the eye of Hurricane Heniretta without every glancing toward the screen. What a gift to Stephen Colbert and Jon Stewart!! And Jay Leno. And David Letterman.

My first thought: They planned this. They want some free time on Comedy Central and late night talk shows.

But no. It's a hilarious goof up. Here's what I think happened:

Intending to showcase McCain's concern for wounded vets, McCain's coinvention showmen appointed some poor schmuck to find a pic of Walter Reed Army Hospital -- a place where the Republican Administration showcased their incompetence. He googoled Walter Reed and found this nice pic.
Unfortunately it is of Walter Reed MIDDLE SCHOOL in North Hollywood, California - a decidedly Democratic community. It came right off their website. The principal says the RNC did not have permission to use the pic.

I'm sure Colbert will have another Green Screen Challenge. Here is the first of many versions to come on youTube:

Watch Out, Mr. Bush!

Click the pic.

A Comment Reply

(This is in reply to a comment on the last post asking why I consider Obama ready to be President, but find Sarah Palin unprepared. Haloscan truncated my reply and I lost about half of it. I should know better. I also wanted to include the pic and couldn't use that in a comment. Little of the following will relate to issues. On the issues there is no contest in my book, of course. I agree with Barack Obama, I disagree with John McCain and what little we know of Sarah Palin.)

Yes, I find Sarah Palin's voice irritating. But that has nothing to do with my support or lack of support for her. I worked hard for Walter Mondale and proudly display on my office wall a photo of a very pregnant Sheila and me with Mondale at a meeting in Kennesaw in 1983. But his nasal, upper mid-west accent is grating to me. (I'm sorry Walter!)

(L-R) Mildred Greear, Sheila Shaw, Terrell Shaw, Walter Mondale,
Philip Greear, Jim Williams

Organizing and executing a large-scale, innovative, and very-successful national campaign with thousands of employees and volunteers for 19 months certainly does count, by the way.

In my opinion Barack Obama -- like Lincoln in the late fifties -- has been a major player in the national debate for four years. Prior to four years of national experience he had a strong intellectual, educational, and practical grounding in international affairs, constitutional law, and state affairs. He has been vetted by the press and by being in the public eye all that time. We know his positions. We have seen him work closely with senators of both parties. We have seen him operate under pressure. He has demonstrated himself as a person of depth, vision, and judgment to anyone paying attention.

Sarah Palin has been a rookie in a minor league. (Each of the 435 congressional districts has roughly the same population as Alaska) Palin seems to have some skills but has not yet demonstrated them in the bigs. It is plain that John McCain did not vet her in the way that he did Pawlenty and others. He is now scurrying to catch up with reporters and Democrats in post-vetting her. He does not know her. He has met her only once and briefly before last week. I doubt he knew she was a former member of an Alaskan political party that considers secession a real option for the state. McCain made, it is obvious to me, a quick political decision. Palin puts McCain in the news and dampens the post-convention attention on Obama. She is not a boring choice like a Pawlenty or Romney would have been and she excites the extreme right that has been uninspired by McCain. (She is the most extreme major party candidate and the least experienced in my memory.) Her choice shows poor judgment and, in fact negates McCain's best argument against Obama, who like Lincoln and others has a relatively thin official resume.

Those who use "commander" of the Alaska National Guard and facing the Russians across the Bering Sea as examples of foreign policy experience for Palin are just providing comic relief for the country, IMHO.

I understand the support of the right wing for Palin. She has a compelling story. She is a fresh face not associated directly with the failures of the last eight years. She is young, vital, strong, articulate, but still extremely conservative. Many conservative women have a feminist streak just under the surface. Fact is, they don't want folks pushing them around as women either. They want their female standard-bearers too.

To me the choice of Palin says that McCain has decided that his best chance is to continue the culture wars that allowed Bush to just barely make the White House twice.

Off Limits! and In Bounds.

Barack Obama is exactly right:

Candidates' children should be off limits.

If you are tempted to write about a pregnant seventeen-year-old, stop. Get a life. That little girl and her baby need love and support and reasonable privacy and not public humiliation.

Now, if you want
• talk about the ridiculous aspects of Sarah Palin's choice by a 72 year-old cancer survivor who has made "readiness to serve on a day one" the major issue in his campaign
• talk about the straight-faced emphasis, by McCain spokesfolk, on Palin's experience as "Commander" of Alaska's National Guard.
• talk about how Palin not only opposes most abortions she even opposes abortions in the case of rape or incest.
• talk about how she questions the existence of global warming, and believes that if it exists it has little or nothing to do with human activity. (Even Reagan's EPA director disagrees with her on this!)
• talk about how Sen. McCain chose to accuse Sen. Obama of choosing politics over country -- then named someone plainly unprepared to be president if McCain keels over on Jan. 20. I can think of no motivation except politics for this choice.
• talk about the pain of having to listen to that over-loud, nasal, upper mid-west accent for four years. Leno and Letterman will have a ball with it. (That accent will be worth a bunch of votes for Obama-Biden in these parts -- I loved Humphrey and Mondale, but the accent is like nails on a blackboard!)
• talk about how Palin supported the "Bridge to Nowhere" before she opposed it.
• talk about how Palin directed seven-times-indicted Sen. "Bridge to Nowhere" Stevens' political action committee.
• talk about the ethics investigations against her.

All that being said, I think Palin has some advantages for McCain. She provides the right-wing base with some red-meat. She will inspire such low expectations in her debate with Biden that she is predestined and fore-ordained to win that debate if she be just reasonably poised, that is, doesn't barf on the moderator.

She can overcome the misgivings of her lack of experience with deft dealing with the media, the debate, outstanding speeches. But I think her ticket-mate takes a hit for a poorly vetted choice and loses his best argument against Barack Obama.

Congratulations to Sarah Palin

Sarah Palin has an interesting personal history and -- dismissing for the moment her untra-conservative political views -- skills that would serve her well as a vice-president. Perhaps after four or eight years in that post she would have gained the foreign and domestic experience and skills to actually be a strong President. She reminds me a great deal of some of the strong conservative women in my own family, for whom I have great admiration.

That being said let's think about the two most damning grenades that John McCain has lobbed at Barack Obama,

1. Senator Barack Obama is dangerously inexperienced.
By tapping Sarah Palin to be a 72-year-old's heartbeat away from leader of the free-world he has chosen someone whose electoral experience includes less than 19 months as governor of one of our smallest states and mayor of a town of a few thosusand souls; whose experience in national issues is tiny; and whose experience in foreign affairs is nonexistent. For goodness' sake, John McCain had only met her once before he tapped her and spoke with her on the phone twice. So much for worrying about the Commander-in-chief's credentials in facing Islamic terrorism, the "trancendent issue of our times". Maybe facing Russia across the Bering Strait is her strength?

2. Senator Barack Obama puts politics above country.

The sleasiest McCain attack is his stupid and insulting accusations that Barack Obama is a traitor -- that is that he puts getting elected above the good of the country. The choice of Sarah Palin above Kay Bailey Hutchison, Mike Huckabee, Joe Leiberman, Tom Ridge, Condaleeza Rice, etc., etc., etc. -- is an unabashedly political choice. He cannot know that she is prepared to be commander-in-chief.

The first and most important Presidential decision of any candidate for President is his/her choice of Vice President. John Kennedy, Bill Clinton, Jimmy Carter, Ronald Reagan, Barack Obama, and even George W. Bush, chose running mates that, yes they hoped would help them be elected, but they also chose people that they knew could help them govern and who could step into the Presidency at a moment's notice with the knowledge, experience, and confidence to lead our nation in an emergency.

Sarah Palin is not such a person.

We've had choices before that were not highly experienced: Dan Quayle, Spiro Agnew, Geraldine Ferraro.

John McCain has chosen the least qualified Vice Presidential nominee that I can recall.

John McCain has failed the test.