Friday, November 07, 2008

How did I do?

Last week I made some predictions about the election -just for the fun of it. My prognostication came out remarkbly near the mark. Here was my electoral college prediction:

The actual electoral vote seems to have finally been settled* to the map below:

I underestimated Obama's outcome in two places. Though I noted that North Carolina would be very close, I thought McCain was likely to outperform the polls enough to take the Tar Heel state. He nearly did. (Most of my calls for Obama were to North Carolina, the rest split between Ohio and Florida. So I'll take the credit. -hehe) The other spot I missed is Omaha. The state of Nebraska is one of two that alots an electoral vote to the candidate who wins each congressional district and two additional votes to the overall winner in that state. Obama squeaked by in the Omaha district that I knew was close, but neglected to include in my "best case" scenario.
Even though Indiana was polling slightly red the last week of the campaign I just felt it might break our way and, correctly it turns out, picked it as my upset. The other toss-ups/battlegrounds I put in the column most pollsters put them when forced to make a choice: McCain - MT, ND, GA, WV; Obama - PA (never really in doubt!), NM, CO, NH, NV, VA, OH, FL

I made several other guesses:
- Obama will be the first Democrat since our bicentennial year to poll over 50% of the popular vote - I predict 52%. Obama beat my prediction with 53%!
- Sleazy Saxby Chambliss will find himself in a run-off with Jim Martin. Right on!
- Elizabeth Dole will lose her seat in the Senate as will Ted Stevens, Gordon Smith, John Sununu, and Norm Coleman. Smith's two Democratic first cousins will be elected in Colorado and New Mexico. I was right about Dole, Smith, Sununu, and the two Udalls! Convicted-felon Stevens is slightly ahead but many absentee and provisional ballots remain to be counted. Coleman will probably squeak out a tiny plurality but a recount is underway.
- Counting the two independents the Democratic caucus in the Senate will number at least 59.
Still possible in the unlikely event that two of the three undecided races turn blue. We are currently at 57.
- We will elect 260 House Democrats. It looks like we will come up several seats shy of 260. Right now the count is 255.
* There is still a very slight possibility that Missouri could turn blue by a few votes.

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