Sunday, November 02, 2008

Final Predictions

Well, this is it. The final votes will be cast tomorrow. Some time ago I made a map of a narrow win for Barack Obama. I now believe the following scenario is the worst (please!) he can do! John McCain's only hope is to hold the red states on this map and somehow grab Pennsylvania.

On the other hand this next map is the very best scenario that I believe it is reasonable to hope for. I actually think it is reasonable to hope for Georgia's 15 electoral votes to go to Barack Obama and Joe Biden.

But for the fun of it, I'll give my actual best idea of where the map will stand when all the votes are counted. No one really knows, of course, but if Fred Barnes and Chris Mattthews and Bill Maher can put forward predictions, why not me!
The closest margins will be (IMHO) in Indiana, Missouri, North Carolina, Ohio, Florida, and -- just maybe -- Georgia.

The final Gallup likely voter poll predicts a big Obama win:

A few other predictions from the Limb:
- Obama will be the first Democrat since our bicentennial year to poll over 50% of the popular vote - I predict 52%.
- Sleazy Saxby Chambliss will find himself in a run-off with Jim Martin.
- Elizabeth Dole will lose her seat in the Senate as will Ted Stevens, Gordon Smith, John Sununu, and Norm Coleman. Smith's two Democratic first cousins will be elected in Colorado and New Mexico.
- Counting the two independents the Democratic caucus in the Senate will number at least 59.
- We will elect 260 House Democrats

Whether my idle predictions work out or not, at least we know that the Bush era is over.

Politics has provided some of the great inspiring moments of my life and some of the greatest disappointments. I will never approach election night without an elevated heart rate and blood pressure and, despite high hopes and a basic optimism, an underlying sense of dread that, however sure the polls look, bad guys might yet pull some shenanigans and scare good people into voting against the best interests of liberty.

Barring the biggest upset in Presidential electoral history, Barack Obama will be our President next January. That is a wonderfully comforting thought to this American. But blog predictions are a dime a dozen. We, the People still have to seal the deal at the polls.

And after all, unlike political junkies like me who see Red and Blue State scenarios, Barack Obama calls on us all to remember we are the UNITED States of America.

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