Gleaning Facebook: Handicapping the Candidates 9 Months Out

 As a political addict since campaigning for Ike in my 1956 fourth grade class it is time for the first round of 2016 predictions: Iowa caucuses.

Real Clear Politics final caucus polling summary has this order of predicted finish:

Democratic Candidates -

Clinton - 48%

Sanders - 44%

O'Malley - 4%

GOP Candidates -

Trump - 29%

Cruz - 24%

Rubio - 17%

Carson - 8%

Bush - 4%

Paul - 4%

Huckabee - 3%

Kasich - 3%

Christie - 3%

Fiorini - 3%

Santorum -1%

Democratic caucuses are more involved than the GOP's. In almost all, if not all, of the caucuses the O'Malley folks will be very few if any. Those few will break about evenly. Those who are for MO for ideological reasons will move to the Clinton group. Those who think in strategic terms or who are embittered at the front-runner will head to Bernie's corner.

Bernie is working hard, but he does not have the organization that the president had in 2008 for turning out new caucusers. Sec. Clinton does have organization and experience. It will be close, but I think she will win, and maybe by enough to surprise some folks. So probably my heart talking, but I predict Democrats when push comes to shove will realize Hillary will make the best president. Hillary by 5 points.

On the Republican side Trump and Cruz have had all the press lately, but are very unlikeable folks. Rubio & Kasich are likeable enough but unexciting. Bush, Huckabee, Santorum, Paul, Fiorini, Carson, Christie, et al, are IMO out of the running now. GOP caucusers just show, talk a while, and write their choice on a slip, and leave. Easy-peasy. Still Trump's followers are low-info, and not very sharp to start, by and large, and may be under-represented. I suspect Cruz peaked a few days early. Rubio has been moving up. And Kasich (IMO) is the GOP's best shot at actually winning, though he has abandoned Iowa. I suspect Rubio, Kasich, and Huckabee will fare a little better than expected:

I suspect Trump & Cruz will lead but end up with less support than expected.

In the end I suspect Trump still manages a victory in a very splintered vote. When I first put this together I wrote: "But don't be surprised if Trump comes in under 30%." Now that's RCP's prediction as well. I also predicted Rubio would narrow the gap and he has. He may close it a little further. I'm gonna say that the order stays like RCP predicts, but that it'll be a little tighter between the top three. Trump 26, Cruz 23, Rubio 20.

The predicted snowstorm seems to have fissled. It looks like weather will not be an important factor.

At this point I believe Sec. Clinton will face one of these four candidates in the general election: Trump, Cruz, Rubio, or Kasich.

Whadya think? The Presidential caucuses right now: 6 pm, Febrauary 1, 2016.

The political Big Show starts now.

Comments

Victoria Stanz Abernathy Wish I still owned the cute Marvin Griffin bandwagon toy from whatever year that was. Sure my devilish little brothers tore it up though it was metal. At 6 remember dad moving the new tv to the front porch trying to get better reception to watch the Dem Nat Convention. Guess I was hooked.

Sam Burnham We agree that Trump voters are low info, that Trump & Cruz aren't very likable, that Rubio isn't very exciting. I hope Rubio tanks and Paul finishes better than expected. But hope is a fickle thing sometimes.

Russell Jones I think your predictions are accurate for this election cycle. The only sad part is that neither party has an outstanding candidate.

Terrell Shaw I am in the enviable position of having a candidate I really like... Sec. Clinton. I think she will be an outstanding president.

Russell Jones That puts you in a special group of people...

Joshua Villines Thankfully, I really like Clinton and Sanders. I feel good either way.

Sam Burnham I'm trying to figure out how Kasich is polling anything at all. He must have a really big family.

Kimberly Guenther Oberheu I think Iowa should not be the first starting point it's not a good cross section for either party in terms of the overall representation of America..just too vanilla

Terrell Shaw I agree.

Howard Smith I think the results are going to be much closer than your predictions and the results may be a bit of a surprise

Sam Burnham I'm still gonna have to concede, but I am beating Jim Gilmore.

Jim Howell I campaigned for McGovern in my fifth grade class. Unfortunately he only got 4votes out of 50. Oh well Nixon did such a great job. Lol