New Hampshire has spoken; now what?

New Hampshire has spoken

Congratulations to our Democratic candidates who ran a great race in New Hampshire. Like Iowa it was a tie between Buttigieg and Sanders but this time there was a very strong third in Klobuchar.

My takeaways:

• very high turnout. Yay!
• although Sanders managed a bare raw vote victory his margin was tiny and much less than his win in NH four years ago. He garnered a bit more than a quarter of the vote.
• Klobuchar greatly beat expectations.
• the major pragmatic progressives (Buttigieg, Klobuchar, and Biden) together greatly out-polled the combined votes of the two more liberal candidates (Sanders & Warren)
• a small but significant number (about 10%) of Republicans cast protest votes for Weld against Trump on the GOP ballot. If those folks sit out the fall race or (even better) vote Democratic, then Trump cannot win NH, imo.
• I wonder if some NH Republicans crossed over to vote for Bernie and hurt the Dems???
• Yang and Bennet left the race

Now what?

• In my opinion we need to see how the candidates do in the more diverse states of Nevada and South Carolina. 
• THEN we need to consolidate the pragmatic progressive vote. 
• The nominee must be a pragmatic progressive because we need someone who can UNITE the nation to the absolute greatest degree possible after the division of Trump. Now is not the time for breaking barriers philosophically or socially. 
• I remember the enthusiasm of the McGovernites of '72. They were perhaps even more fervant than the Bernie Boys of today. 

• Therefore, despite the fact that I love the eloquence of Pete and the fiery ”purity" of Bernie and they both have served important roles in this campaign and in our national discussion generally, I do not think we should take a chance on either as our 2020 nominee. Pete would make a good president, but a controversial one, not a unifying one. Bernie serves a useful purpose as a maverick senator. Perhaps he would make a good president, but I have seen no evidence that he would make a good executive or a uniting or inspiring leader.
• Although I admire Bloomberg for putting his fortune on the line to save America from the evil of Trump, I do not like the idea of a candidate buying the presidency. Still he would be the closest thing we have available as a "unity" or "compromise" nominee since he is a moderate Republican turned moderate Democrat.

Please know: 

• I admire my friends to the left who want Medicare For All and want it now and can't imagine that the socialist label is disqualifying in 2020. I believe all Americans are somewhere on a socialist/capitalist spectrum short of the extremes. I believe FDR was a democratic socialist and also one of the two or three greatest presidents of our history --- but he was elected while we were in the throes of the Great Depression. 
• I admire my friends who want the groundbreaking eloquence of a Mayor Pete and can't imagine that the fact of his First Gentleman could be a stumbling block to election in 2020. I'm sorry those things are obstacles. And yes we elected a groundbreaking eloquent black president in 2008 (and but for the anti-republican 22nd amendment he'd be our best candidate today) --- but Obama was elected while we were in the throes of the Great Recession

Bottom line

I still support Joe Biden as the person I most trust and that I believe can best unite the maximum number of Americans. The presidency is decided by the states rather than the people (unfortunately) and Joe will put the largest number of 2016 "red" states (and GOP senators) in play IMO, including at the margins TX, GA, and OH but especially AZ, WI, MI, PA, NC, & FL.  He is known. He is trusted. 

But, oh, how I also love Amy. If Joe cannot manage to win in NV or SC, then I will happily join the Amy camp. Withe her Wisconsin roots and Minnesota base she gives us a good shot at the Midwest states we so narrowly lost in 2016. With a Stacey Abrams or Cory Booker or Kamala Harris or Deval Patrick as running mate she can rev up the party's base.

Warren remains my third choice of the major candidates but NH was an even bigger blow to her chances than it was to Biden. But she is smart, a eloquent, and more pragmatic than Bernie while also appealing to the more liberal Democrats.