Thursday, November 05, 2020

Trump May Be Out, But Trumpism Remains

 Well, I certainly didn't get my dream of a blowout. I didn't even get my more realistic prediction. I am so far not horribly off my "minimum" projection. I predicted a range of 308 to 369 Electoral Votes (EV) for Joe Biden and Kamala Harris. Here's the minimum map I used:


Here are the Trump EVs I missed so far:
Maine's 2nd District - 1
Florida - 29
Ohio - 18

So at this point the count is Biden 243 and Trump 214. So we need seventeen more EVs out of these:

Yet to be called are:
Alaska (I picked Trump there) - 3
North Carolina (I picked Biden but it looks like Trump will take it.) - 15
Nevada (I picked Biden and he is leading there and I believe he will take it) - 6
Arizona (I picked Biden. It is whisker close but Biden leads; fingers crossed. Fox has called AZ for Biden, but others are not so sure.) - 11
Pennsylvania (I picked Biden. Trump leads but the mail ballots remaining will likely put Biden over the top.) - 20
AND GEORGIA! - 16
I picked my home state for Biden knowing it would be close, but I just had to pick him here. Well, Trump is leading by 0.3% but all the recent trickles of votes have favored Biden and narrowed Trump's lead. It is a TOSS-UP still. Expecting a final bunch from Fulton soon. On tenterhooks.


I am devastated that we are almost sure to have at least two more years of Republican dishonesty and dirty tricks in the US Senate. BUT in Georgia we will have a great candidate Raphael Warnock leading the woman who bought her Senate seat and as an incumbent could not even lead the "jungle primary".
In addition Trump Bootlicker David Perdue is for the moment at least falling below the 50% plus one required to keep him out of a runoff. That means we very well may have TWO Georgia US Senate seats up for election in the January 5 run-off election! If so we have almost two more months of very hard work to do.
I was right about these two flips: 
Arizona (Kelly)
Colorado (Hickenlooper)
And unfortunately I was correct about the red flip:
Alabama (Jones lost to Tuberville)

Here are the races I missed:
Maine  (Gideon)
Iowa (Greenfield)
Montana (Bulloch)

This hasn't been called but looks like I missed it.
North Carolina (Cunningham)

And I was correct about the two run-offs (Unless Perdue improves to 50% plus one.)

The US House was a disappointment nationwide. We kept out majority but it is slimmed a little, BUT in Georgia we gained a seat by reelecting first-termer Lucy McBath and flipping a seat for Carolyn Bordeaux.

We did NOT pick up seats as I predicted in the Georgia House so the GOP will continue to play havoc with district lines to minimize Democratic influence.


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