Monday, November 02, 2020

2016 Was the Most Important, 2020 Surpasses That...

The 2016 Electoral Collge map, despite Hillary Clinton's victory in the vote of the people, looked very red. Of course big parts of the red areas out west have more cows and trees than people. Here's the map:

2016 Results

Here is my best guess about how the electoral votes will turn out tomorrow. I believe Joe Biden will win. I will be happy with 270 but pray for a much larger win. He likely will total between 308 and 369 electoral votes. I think he will carry every electoral vote that Hillary Clinton won in 2016 including the relative battlegrounds of:
Colorado
Nevada
New Hampshire
Minnesota

In addition I believe Joe Biden and Kamala Harris will carry these electoral votes that Clinton lost by a whisker:
Michigan
Wisconsin 
Pennsylvania 
Maine (2nd District)

I also believe Joe Biden and Kamala Harris will carry these battlegrounds very narrowly:

Arizona (3-4%)
Nebraska  (2nd District) (3-4%)
North Carolina (2% or so)
Florida (1-2%)

It may be wishful thinking but I believe he will even carry two states by a whisker (1% or so) that no one really thought he could:
Ohio (<1%)
(Please Lord!) Georgia (<1%)

My Official Optimistic Map



My Official Uh-Oh Map


Joe Biden will fall barely short (1-2%) by my reckoning (though I will still hope) in:
Iowa
Texas

If Joe has a really big night he has a long shot chance at picking up all of the above plus Alaska and Montana

We have few chances out of 100 for this to be the map! I don't think it's likely, but we have a shot if everyone gets out and votes. So mask up, wash hands, carefully distance, and VOTE! I'd be dancing in the street.

My Official Wow! Map

If Biden wins Georgia, as I hope, I think Jon Ossoff will likely be in a runoff for US Senator though there is a chance he could win it outright or lose it outright. I am really praying for this one. What a difference for our nation to have an honest and patriotic senator from Georgia. In the special senate race Raphael Warnock will lead with a close race between Loeffler and Collins to face Warnock in the runoff. I suspect Loeffler will edge out Collins for the spot. From that point it's a whole new race for that one and Democrats have a job in front of us getting out=r voters back out in January.

I believe we will take the senate. Here are my red-to-blue turnover picks in the Senate races:
Maine  (Gideon)
Arizona (Kelly)
Colorado (Hickenlooper)
North Carolina (Cunningham) 

I'll also pick these three upsets:
Iowa (Greenfield)
Montana (Bulloch)
Georgia (Ossoff)


Unfortunately there'll be one blue-to-red turnover:
Alabama (Boo-hiss, the coach, Tuberville, will defeat a fine and courageous public servant, Doug Jones)

Democrats will pick up ten or more seats in the US House, including Carolyn Bordeaux in Georgia.
We will increase our seats in the Georgia house but likely come up short of a majority. Here's hoping though.

Well, my superstitious side hates to put my hopes and opinions online for fear of jinxing things, but it has become TRADITION! I get some and miss some. 

I literally pray that our nation can put Trump and trumpism behind us with a resounding Democratic victory, but a skin-of-our-teeth victory is better than nothing. Our nation has never needed the people to step up so badly in my lifetime. Joe Biden and a slate of great senate candidates will, if elected, turn America back toward our most cherished American principles of liberty, equality for all, civility, one-person/one-vote, the common good, justice, order, environmental stewardship, and diplomacy abroad, and the ever perfecting of our great nation.

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